The Doc's Week Three Picks
Ouch! Week two was one of
the worst weeks I've ever had picking games. It seem like every time I
turned around I walked straight into a backdoor cover or teams trying to
be cute and going away from what they do best. Oh well, the good news is
that it's always followed with another round of games to redeem
yourself.
At first glance, I'm a
little worried because I've taken 12 road teams this week. Of those,
though, eight are ranked in the top half of my rankings and a couple are
being handed double-digit spreads against somewhat disappointing teams.
Hopefully, I'll get back on
the winning track this week.
Picks appear
in bold.
Atlanta at New Orleans (-3)
This line was a little surprising to me. Using the age-old theory
that home-field advantage counts for about three points, that means that
Vegas thinks these teams would be a pick 'em at a neutral site. While I
understand the Saints haven't been impressive and the Falcons looked
unstoppable last weekend, I don't think Atlanta's in New Orleans' league
right now.
San Francisco
(-3) at Kansas City
I know coaches say that there are no such things as moral victories, but
I think the 49ers proved something to everyone, including themselves,
last week when they came very close to beating the champs. I think Mike
Singletary's crew gets the win here and will get his team back on track.
Detroit (+12)
at Minnesota
Right now, I don't trust the Vikings, or Brett Favre, as far as I could
throw both of the Williams brothers. Except for Adrian Peterson, it
looks like they're all out there just to collect a paycheck. On the
other hand, while the results aren't there, the Lions are playing good
football. Jahvid Best, Ndamukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson are showing why
they were highly thought-of draft picks. I don't think they'll win, but
they can definitely keep it close.
Dallas at
Houston (-3)
I don't feel very good about this game. The Texans have been one of
the more impressive teams in the league, while the Cowboys have been the
opposite. Something tells me that the Cowboys are due, but I simply
can't take them until they play with some discipline.
Tennessee (+3) at New York
Giants
This is another line I don't get. I don't know how anyone can see these
teams as even. The Titans, when they're not shooting themselves in the
foot, are better offensively and defensively than the Giants. In
addition, Vince Young will not have two bad games in a row, and New
York's front seven will not be able to control Chris Johnson the way
Pittsburgh's did.
Buffalo at New
England (-14)
Sorry, but I don't think there's a line big enough out there for me
to take the Bills, especially going up against an angry Tom Brady.
Cleveland (+11)
at Baltimore
I hate this game. I certainly don't like taking Cleveland with any
amount of points, but the Ravens haven't scored as many points as
they're favored by in either game this year. Not to mention that Joe
Flacco looks like a rookie again.
Pittsburgh
(-2.5) at Tampa Bay
As much as I like the resurgence of the Bucs, I simply can't turn down
Pittsburgh with this line. The way their defense has shut down a couple
of good offenses, I can see them confusing the hell out of Josh Freeman
and forcing him into making some costly mistakes.
Cincinnati (-3)
at Carolina
If you follow the site, you know I don't think much of the Bengals. As a
matter of fact, I think they, the Cowboys, and Jets are the most
overrated in the league. However, the Panthers are just pitiful. There's
absolutely no way that they win this game, so it's hard for me to think
about taking them and the points.
Washington
(-4.5) at St. Louis
Just like the Lions, I like the spunk that the Rams have played with
this season. Even though they'll go into every game this year outmanned,
they still figure out a way to keep it close. But, the Redskins showed
last week that they're going to score some points this year with Donovan
McNabb at the helm.
Philadelphia
(-3) at Jacksonville
For me, this game comes down to one question; do the Jags have a defense
that can contain Mike Vick? The answer is an emphatic "Hell no!"
Indianapolis
(-5.5) at Denver
They always talk about the difficulty playing at Mile High because of
the altitude. I don't care if this game were played on top of Mount
Everest, there's no way the Broncos keep it within double digits.
San Diego (-4.5)
at Seattle
Ugh! I hate picking the Chargers. It just seems like whenever I think
they're going to play to their potential, they end up laying an egg, or
beating a team like Buffalo by two points. On the other hand, I think
the Seahawks are going to be a lot more like the team we saw in week two
than the one we saw in week one.
Oakland (+4.5)
at Arizona
I realize that the Raiders have not looked good so far this year, but do
the wise guys in Vegas know that Derek-freaking-Anderson is playing
quarterback for the Cardinals?
New York Jets at
Miami (-2)
I went into this week thinking that I would take the Jets. However,
two things changed my mind. One, I think New York will have a little bit
of a hangover from the emotional New England win. Two, I don't think the
Dolphins are getting their just due. Defensively, they are one of the
more talented and aggressive units I've seen this year. Offensively,
they have enough weapons, especially in the running game, that will
allow them to put up enough points.
Green Bay (-3)
at Chicago
I don't think this one's going to be anywhere near as close as most
people think. The Bears won't have Tony Romo on the other side trying to
do everything possible to keep them in the game. Also, the secondary for
the Packers is much better than that of the Cowboys. He won't see
receivers and tight ends running freely downfield. Lastly, Green Bay
will sack Jay Cutler at least five times.
Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 13-16-3
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