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Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-2.5)

I've gone back and forth on this game for almost two weeks now, because I think this may be the most evenly-matched Super Bowl that I can remember. Both teams have fantastic defenses that are stout, but can change the game with turnovers and big plays. Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are at the top of their game, have a firm grasp on their offenses, and seem to always get the ball to the right player at the right time. In addition, the coaching staffs are comprised of men that are at the top of their respective areas of expertise and are meticulous in their preparations for every opponent.

However, I keep coming back to a few points that tilt this game in the Packers' favor. First, I think the Packers receivers have a huge advantage over the Pittsburgh secondary. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson make up one of the best units in football, and should be able to get open and run free through the Steelers' backfield. Outside of Troy Polomalu, not a single one of them will be able to handle their assignments, and Rodgers will be able to gain large chucks of yardage through the air. When you review Pittsburgh's season, they only played a couple of games against teams that spread the field, and they lost both games to New Orleans and New England. Against the Patriots, Dick Lebeau had such a hard time dealing with Tom Brady, New England was able to churn out over 100 rushing yards at 4.3 yards per carry (both well over the 62.8 and 3.0 season averages, repectively). Because of this, and respectfully disagreeing with many of my colleagues, I think the Packers will be able to run the ball, especially with the Steelers playing much of the game in a nickel or dime formation.

Second, while the Steelers boast the better special teams units as a whole, the Packers enjoy a big advantage at kicker, and in a game that could be as close as this one, I'll take Mason Crosby over Shaun Suisham any day. The latter hasn't even attempted a field goal of over 50 yards this year, where the former has one of the biggest legs in the game. Crosby has a long of 56 yards this year, and while it hasn't been one of his better years, he's still a more trustworthy option from 40 yards and out.

Lastly, as I said before, the coaching pieces are similar and both are considered among the top staffs in the league. Dom Capers learned the zone blitz scheme under Dick Lebeau and each of them has added their own spin. Capers brings a lot more pressure from the secondary, which he can do because of the overall talent and athleticism edge he has at the corner and safety positions, without getting into matchup problems. On the other hand, Lebeau likes to use his front seven to cause confusion.

The biggest advantage in this game, though, is the one that Green Bay enjoys in offensive play-calling. When Ted Thompson hired Mike McCarthy five years ago, he took a lot of grief from the fans and media. However, those who know the game knew that he was one of the best offensive minds in the league. He's quickly turned Aaron Rodgers into one of the best quarterbacks in football, and he does a great job of mixing it up and keeping teams honest when he has very little production from the running game. Conversely, Bruce Arians, outside of the occasional trick play, lacks creativity and has a hard time with adjustments and straying from his original game plan. If Rashard Mendenhall has difficulty finding daylight early, which I suspect will be a big part of the game plan, the Steelers could find themselves in a big hole and it will be up to Arians to get them back in the game. Personally, I don't like that formula.

Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 23
 

Wild Card Weekend: 2-0
Overall: 7-3