The Doc's Week Fourteen Picks
Picks appear
in bold.
Indianapolis (-3)
at Tennessee
Neither team is playing well right now, but the Titans are downright
awful. The haven't scored a touchdown since the first quarter of their
week 11 game against the Redskins, and the offense didn't look any
better against Jacksonville's 27th-ranked defense in the league last
week. I'll go with Peyton Manning rebounding from three consecutive bad
games.
Oakland at
Jacksonville (-4)
The Raiders are coming off an emotional division win, and now have
to travel across the country, play when they're normally getting out of
bed, and do it against a team that's been getting better as the year has
progressed. Their defensive strength is against the pass, which is the
opposite of what the Jaguars like to do. I think Maurice Jones-Drew has
a big day.
Cincinnati at
Pittsburgh (-9)
Yes, I know that the Steelers are also coming off a big win in their
division, but the Bengals are tailor-made for this game. They struggle
against the run, and with the weather being sub-freezing with rain and
snow projected for Pittsburgh on Sunday, I'll take my chances with the
Steelers' ground game and their defense forcing some mistakes.
New England (-3)
at Chicago
I will be there first to admit that I was wrong about the Bears. Sure, I
thought Jay Cutler and the offense would be better under Mike Martz, but
I didn't think Julius Peppers would have the impact he's had on the
defense. However, when all is said and done, Brady is having one of
those years where you simply can't go against him.
Cleveland (+1) at
Buffalo
There's nothing like bad weather to take the "Jake Delhomme Effect" out
of the picture when predicting games. This game is perfect for Peyton
Hillis and extremely bad for the Bills' pass-happy scheme.
New York Giants (-2)
at Minnesota
Don't get me wrong, I like Leslie Frazier and I hope he keeps the job in
Minnesota, but his 2-0 record could not have been easier in terms of
scheduling. The Redskins are imploding and have been in a downward
spiral since Mike Shanahan told Donovan McNabb he was too fat to run the
two minute drill. Next, they got the Bills, who are 1-5 on the road.
Against the Giants, they'll face the most balanced team they'll play all
year.
Green Bay (-7) at
Detroit
Granted, the Lions kept it close in Lambeau way back in week four, but
that was without Drew Stanton at quarterback (not that Shawn Hill is
that much better) and the defense was playing more solid. On the flip
side, Aaron Rodgers is quietly (in comparison to Tom Brady, Matt Ryan,
and Michael Vick) playing at an MVP-type level and will be going up
against a defense that allows opposing quarterbacks a 96.3 rating, 28th
in the league.
Atlanta (-7) at
Carolina
There are two things I really like about the Falcons. First, Mike Smith
does a great job keeping his players focused and on an even keel. Rarely
do you hear of them "playing down to their competition." Second, the
defense is so much better than it's been in recent years. They've
improved in each of his three years at the helm (jumping from 29th in
2007 to 24th in 2008 to 21st in 2009 to 7th this year in points
allowed). I have a feeling they're pretty excited about going up against
a Jimmy Clausen-led offense.
Tampa Bay (-2) at
Washington
As mentioned earlier, the Redskins are going backward and it seems as
though a week hasn't passed without some sort of drama or another.
Conversely, the Bucs have been extremely consistent in that they beat
the teams they're supposed to and lost to the ones they're not. I put
Washington in the former category.
St. Louis at New
Orleans (-9)
If this game were played a few weeks ago, I might have given the
Rams a chance in this game. Unfortunately, they're going into this one
with the Saints playing the best football of the season and as healthy
as they've been all year.
Seattle (+5.5) at
San Francisco
I think the 49ers will win this game and pull themselves within a game
of the division lead. However, I don't like the switch back to Alex
Smith at quarterback. Troy Smith was playing well and the offense was as
efficient as it's been since Mike Singletary took over. So, I like the
Seahawks to keep it close after a few miscues by Mr. Tiny Hands.
Miami at New York Jets
(-5)
It's not that I have a lot of confidence in the way the Jets are
playing right now, but I think they're going to be very angry after the
Monday night debacle. In addition, Miami's lack of capable receivers,
coupled with New York's secondary, will make it difficult for them to
throw the ball. The Dolphins' one dimensional offense will allow Rex
Ryan's crew to bring the eighth man into the box, which will make it a
tough go for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.
Denver (-4.5) at
Arizona
If there was a way that both teams could lose this game, I'd settle for
that option. But, there are a few reasons why I like the Broncos. First,
I don't see how Arizona can stop the Denver's passing attack. Second,
the Cardinals will be starting a rookie, John Skelton, at quarterback.
Third, the interim coach thing has worked out pretty well this year, and
I see this matchup following suit.
Kansas City at San
Diego (-6.5)
The Chiefs are trying to fool everyone into thinking that Matt
Cassel will play in this game. However, I know a lot of people that had
a hard time doing the easiest of tasks within a week after an
appendectomy, never mind play quarterback at a high level. Even with
that running game, I can't see Brody Croyle making enough plays to keep
this one close.
Philadelphia (-3.5)
at Dallas
OK, OK, I know the Cowboys are playing better, but we're talking about
the Eagles here, a team that's won four of their last five and has the
most dynamic offense in football right now. Moreover, Dallas is only 1-5
at home, and I can see Jon Kitna really struggling against a team that
has a complex blitz package like Philadelphia.
Baltimore (-3) at
Houston
To be honest, I'm very surprised at this line. Do I think the Texans are
better than their 5-7 record? Sure. Do they have the weapons to give the
Ravens concerns? Absolutely. At the same time, do I think the Texans'
defense will figure out another way to give this game away? You betcha!
Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 81-103-8
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