The Doc's Week Eight Picks
I'm just not going to say
anything here. It's just a bad year.
Picks appear
in bold.
Denver (+2)
at San Francisco
Ever since the NFL started the international regular season games, I've
felt bad for fans that have to give up a game so the league can promote
the league worldwide. In this case, both teams fan bases may be happy to
give it up. I like the Broncos for two reasons. First, they're more
stable at quarterback. Second, the AFC is proving that it is the
superior conference and even with both teams being at the bottom, the
rule still applies.
Jacksonville
(+6.5) at Dallas
I'm pretty sure the Cowboys will get their second win of the year, but I
don't think that a team led by Jon Kitna should be close to a touchdown
favorite against anyone. Also, maybe it's because of the immense
pressure their owner put on them at the beginning of the season, but the
'Boys are 0-3 against the spread at home.
Washington (+3)
at Detroit
I'm certainly not comfortable taking three road underdogs to start the
week, but I'm having a difficult time going with the Lions on this one.
I know that they're playing better, and you never know what you're going
to get with the Redskins on the road, but Washington has won three out
of the last four (all against teams with winning records) with two of
those coming on the road.
Green Bay at New
York Jets (-6)
A lot of you know my feelings about the Packers, so this may
surprise you. However, they're a wounded football team, especially along
the defensive front, going up against a superior opponent on the road.
And with with Mark Tauscher injured, the Jets will be coming after Aaron
Rodgers.
Carolina at St.
Louis (-3)
The Rams are 3-1 against the spread at home, and I think they're
better all over the board. Sam Bradford is proving to be a special
rookie, and I like the matchup of Steven Jackson against that Panther
defense (ranked 24th against the run). Personally, I'm not really sure
why the wiseguys have this one at only three.
Miami (+2)
at Cincinnati
This one's pretty easy - the Dolphins are one of the best road teams in
the league (3-0 straight up the same against the number). On the other
hand, the Bengals have been very disappointing no matter where they're
playing. Last year, they relied on a defense that was near the top in
almost every defensive category. Unfortunately, the script has been
flipped this year and they simply aren't getting it done.
Buffalo at
Kansas City (-7.5)
Believe it or not, I sweated this one out. Sure, the Chiefs are
destroying teams at home (by an average of just under 17 points per
game), but the Bills are 2-1 against the spread on the road and covered
two bigger numbers against better teams than Kansas City (New England
and Baltimore). When it came time for a decision, though, I don't think
the romanticizing of Buffalo quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, will
continue against an underrated Chiefs' pass defense.
Tennessee (+4)
at San Diego
I going with the Titans for three reasons. One, they're 3-0 against the
spread on the road this year. Two, they're just a much better team right
now. Three, I will never trust the Chargers or a Norv Turner-coached
team again.
Tampa Bay (+3)
at Arizona
I have no idea how the Cardinals are 3-3. Seriously, their quarterback
situation is the worst in the league, they still have no real rushing
threat, and their defense is ranked in the bottom five in almost every
statistical category. For the Bucs, Josh Freeman is proving most people
(including myself) wrong, and that he was definitely worth the first
round pick Tampa Bay used on him.
Seattle at
Oakland (-2)
Don't get me wrong, I like the Seahawks and I still think they'll
win the NFC West (whatever that's worth), but I think the Raiders
figured a couple of things out last week. First of all, they're better
than people have been telling them they are. Second, they need to stop
worrying who's playing quarterback and simply give the ball to a member
of the impressive stable of running backs they've assembled. Seriously,
Darren McFadden should get at least 25-30 touches per game.
Minnesota at New
England (-6)
Very easy reasoning here - I'm just not sure of the status of Brett
Favre and his ankle. I'm sure he's going to give it a go, but even if
he, or Tavaris Jackson, plays well, I don't think it will be enough
against a very good team like the Patriots.
Pittsburgh (+1)
at New Orleans
Well, the numbers certainly back this pick. The Saints are only 1-6
versus the number this year, and a surprising 0-4 at home. Last year,
they were 7-1 at home, and their average margin of victory was almost
two touchdowns. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie bush were healthy, I may
have thought differently, but what they have is not enough to beat one
of the two best teams in the league, even at home.
Houston (+6)
at Indianapolis
The line for this game is perplexing. The last times these two teams
met, Arian Foster had a historic day running the football, and with the
addition of Derrick Ward, the Texans are even better at that position.
At the same time, the Colts aren't playing the run any better than they
were then, and I don't think much will change. Obviously, Houston's pass
defense will be a problem, but it was in week one as well. I think the
Texans' defense will be able to come up with a couple of stops, which
will be the difference.
Last Week: 5-9
Overall: 42-56-6
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