The Doc's Week Four Picks
OK, I am officially off to
the worst start ever, by far, on my picks. I've only been over .500 in
one week. I may have to start doing some things differently, like I have
in the past, to try and mix things up.
Picks appear
in bold.
Denver at Tennessee (-6.5)
The Broncos put up more of a fight than I thought they would against
the Colts, but that was at home. They lost their only road game this
year to a bad Jacksonville team that had no problem moving the ball on
them through the air or on the ground. I think Chris Johnson has a big
day and the Titans roll.
Baltimore (+2.5)
at Pittsburgh
I've had this game circled on my calendar since July as one of the games
that would determine the best team in the AFC. So far, Baltimore hasn't
looked as good as I thought they would (cough, Joe Flacco, cough). On
the other hand, the Steelers have been nothing short of surprising in
jumping out to a 3-0 start against three pretty good teams. But, I think
this is where Pittsburgh falters.
Cincinnati (-3) at
Cleveland
I would love to take the Browns here, because I think that the Bengals
are a bit overrated at this point. However, Cincinnati is a bit more
balanced on offense and stronger from front to back on defense. Right
now, Peyton Hillis is Cleveland's only bright spot.
Detroit
(+14.5) at Green Bay
This was a really, really tough game for me. The Lions are the worst
defense in the league against the run, but that's not what the Packers
do best. On the other hand, Green Bay can rush the passer, but the Lions
pass protection has been above average. Because of that, and maybe the
Packers being a little stale from losing last week's showdown against
Chicago, I think Detroit can keep it close.
Carolina at New
Orleans (-13.5)
This big spread, though, is pretty easy for me. Right now, I don't
think there's much of a difference between the Panthers and Buffalo. By
average, they are losing games by an average of 13 and now they're
playing the defending champs. I like the Saints to win really big.
San Francisco at
Atlanta (-6.5)
Normally, I would use the
"Atlanta's-coming-off-a-huge-win-and-the-49ers-are-due" excuse, but I
just can't bet on San Francisco right now. They're terrible and
bickering at each other. Maybe the change at offensive coordinator will
help, but I don't think so.
Seattle (-1.5) at
St. Louis
The Rams have really surprised me with their play. I knew they would
play hard, but I just didn't think they had the talent to keep these
games close. In this one, I just think that the Seahawks are a superior
team.
New York Jets (-5.5)
at Buffalo
I have no idea where this spread came from. The Jets have won two
consecutive games over impressive teams, and the Bills have been
doormats (and no, I do not include last week's back-door cover against
New England). I think the Jets put them away early and win going away.
Indianapolis (-7)
at Jacksonville
Copy what I wrote above for Jets-Bills and simply insert "Colts" for
"Jets" and "Jaguars" for "Bills."
Houston (-3) at
Oakland
I thought the Raiders would be much better this year. They had ridded
themselves of the JaMarcus Russell fiasco, had a good draft, and another
year of seasoning for their coaching staff. Unfortunately, for the
members of the "Black Hole", that has not materialized. I think the
Texans will be angry after laying an egg against their in-state rival.
Also, look for Arian Foster to have a great day against a poor rush
defense.
Arizona at San Diego
(-8.5)
Have I mentioned recently how much I hate the Chargers. I'm actually
thinking about dropping them from the weekly picks. They're so talented,
yet they always figure out a way to lose, or just not cover. In this
case, though, the Cardinals are terrible, regardless of their 2-1
record.
Washington (+6) at
Philadelphia
Trust me, I'm as surprised as you are about this pick. The Eagles are
clearly a superior team, the Redskins were just embarrassed by the Rams,
and I usually don't buy into the "revenge" game angle. This one's
different, though. As usual, Donovan McNabb has been taking the high
road, and nothing would make him happier than to stick it to the 700
level. I don't think that will happen, but I think Washington can keep
it close.
Chicago (+3.5) at
New York Giants
Actually, I think the Giants will win this game for two reasons: they
need it and the Bears are coming off an emotional home win over Green
Bay. All that being said, I have no confidence that New York can do it
by more than a field goal.
New England at Miami
(+1)
The problem with this game is that I don't know how the Patriots
will stop the Dolphins. Miami certainly isn't an offensive juggernaut,
but New England hasn't figured out a way to stop the run or pass this
season. On top of that, they just gave up 30 points to the freakin'
Bills.
Last Week:7-9
Overall: 20-25-3
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