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Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
No, it's not just because I picked the Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl that I'm taking them in this game. Whether it's being played in Baltimore or Pittsburgh, there is no home field advantage. These two teams are too familiar with each other for either to have a significant advantage over the other.

I like both defenses, but I think the Steelers have some more big-play guys than their counterparts. Both offenses have some holes, Rashard Mendenhall has been good, but has had consistency issues running the ball this year. On the flip side, the Baltimore receivers' ability to get separation is almost non-existent. Joe Flacco has to have a really good game to get anything significant through the air. In addition, Michael Oher has slipped a little this year, and I think Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison could have big days, and you all know what I think about the Ravens' quarterback when he gets pressured - he makes significant game-changing mistakes.

So, why am I taking Baltimore, you ask? The primary reason is because Pittsburgh-Baltimore games are always too close to call. Their last six regular season games have been decided by a combined 19 points, with the Steelers holding a 4-2 record and the 103-96 edge in points. Also, the home team is 3-3. In other words, I have no idea who's going to win, but either way, it won't be by much.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Atlanta
The Packers and Falcons played earlier this year as well, and it was one of the best games of the year. In week 12, Atlanta beat Green Bay at home, 20-17, after Matt Ryan took advantage of a great kick return by Eric Weems, and Matt Bryant kicked a 47-yarder to win it.

In my opinion, the game was there for the Packers' taking. Even though they outgained the Falcons in yardage by a whopping 418-294 margin and Aaron Rodgers was able to do anything he wanted, the Packers killed themselves with eight penalties for 66 yards, no semblance of a running game, and four fumbles (only losing one, but it was on a quarterback sneak by Rodgers inside Atlanta's one yard line). I think it will be different this time.

Since their last meeting, the Packers have improved their running game, with James Starks pulling off a 123-yard rushing performance against a similar defense in Philadelphia (both run 4-3 alignments with lighter, quicker defensive lineman). In addition, since Rodgers' comeback from his concussion problem, only Tom Brady has played better at the quarterback position. On the other hand, if you follow the site, you know that, while I respect any team that goes 13-3, I think the Falcons have been doing it with smoke-and-mirrors. They do a lot of things well, but nothing great, and I think their defense isn't up to the task of holding the Pack in check again.

Seattle at Chicago (-10)
OK, OK, like everyone else who follows football, I too thought the Seahawks had no shot of getting past the Saints last week. And don't be fooled, they beat the Saints in almost every way possible. But, I think the Saints took them lightly and it was no more apparent in their tackling and defensive effort.

This week, Seattle will get no such break. The Bears will attack on defense, and they will stop Marshawn Lynch, which will put the game in the hands of Matt Hasselbeck. Then, the gimpy Seahawks quarterback will meet Mr. Julius Peppers and Mr. Israel Idonije. Unless it's because of a mercy touchdown at the end of the game or a kickoff return, I can't see Seattle scoring in double-digits.

Lastly, the Saints had a one-dimensional offense because of their banged-up running backs. While the Bears don't have a better offense, they are certainly more balanced. I think Matt Forte will have a big game on the ground and through the air. I could see him having 115 yards rushing, another 60 in receiving, with a couple of touchdowns. Also, Jay Cutler will be playing in his first ever playoff game, and while he's certainly struggled in the spotlight before, I think he and Mike Martz are in a pretty good rhythm right now. Because of that, I think Martz will bring in a game plan that will keep Cutler's confidence high, since they won't need a great game out of him in order to win.

New York Jets at New England (-8.5)
When you look at the teams on paper, you have to scratch your head as to why the Pats are such big favorites. Upon further review, there are a few reasons why their advantage is undeniable.

First, the edge in quarterback play. I don't think I'm reinventing the wheel with this point. Right now, Tom Brady may be playing the position better than any other quarterback in the history of the game. He's not making mistakes, and I mean at all, and he seems to believe more in his receivers than when Randy Moss was running routes. For the Jets, Mark Sanchez just isn't ready. Whenever he's been asked to win a game for New York, he rarely is able to get it done. He's too erratic and is too easily rattled at this time in his career.

Second, I know that Rex Ryan is a defensive genius, but he's not in Bill Belichick's league. More than that, the latter always seems to have something special in a big game or when he's going up against a coach that outsiders (media, fans, etc.) think is a "good matchup" for him.

Third, and I think it was a result of my second point, is the 45-3 beat down the Pats hung on the Jets just last month. From the rhetoric I'm hearing out of the New York, it seems like they're trying to talk themselves into believing they can win. To me, taking verbal shots at Brady, Belichick, and the rest of the Patriots (which has proven disastrous for most teams in the past) is the sign of a desperate team that's looking for something, anything, to believe in.
 

Wild Card Weekend: 3-1