The Doc's Week Ten Picks
As usual, I'm a little
behind this week, so you'll only see my pick for the Thursday night game
for now. Of course, the other 14 games will be released on Friday or
Saturday morning.
Picks appear
in bold.
Chicago (+3) at San Francisco
Let me get one thing out there - I don't trust the Bears. The defense is
very underwhelming, Jay Cutler isn't playing all that well, and I don't
think that Lovie Smith is in control of this team. However, there are
simply too many injuries for the 49ers to overcome. I would have gone
with the 49ers, but with Joe Staley, Nate Clements, and Glen Coffee out,
I think the Bears have a clear advantage.
Jacksonville at New
York Jets (-6.5)
Even after their current slide, the Jets are still number one in the
league in total defense. However, they've dropped to 14th in the NFL
against the run without run-stopping nose tackle Kris Jenkins in the
lineup. That's the one aspect of this game that bothers me. When it
comes down to it, though, I just don't trust the Jags to stop the
league's top-ranked rushing attack.
Denver (-3.5) at
Washington
Whenever I see a line like this I cringe. It seems so obviously out of
whack that I worry if the wise guys know something I don't. There's no
doubt that the Broncos are not the same team that knocked off the
Patriots just over a month ago, but c'mon - only three-and-a-half to the
Redskins?
Cincinnati at
Pittsburgh (-7)
I can't explain it, but I have a feeling that the Steelers win this
one in a rout. On their current five game winning streak, they're
winning by an average of almost 12 points per game (which includes wins
by 10, 10, and 18 over San Diego, Minnesota, and Denver, respectively).
Since Troy Polamalu came back, they just seem like a different team.
Buffalo at Tennessee
(-6.5)
People have asked me why the Titans have played better offensively
with Vince Young at the helm again. It's easy, they have recommitted
themselves to the run and are only asking Vince to make the occasional
play to keep the chains moving.
Detroit at Minnesota
(-16.5)
Wow, that's an awful lot of points to give up there, but I like the
Vikings coming off the bye week. In addition, they've got the whole
"Brett Favre vs. Green Bay" thing out of the way, so now they can just
concentrate on football. Unfortunately for the Lions, they're the first
victim of a more focused Minnesota team.
New Orleans
(-13.5) at St. Louis
Another big spread, but the Rams are just terrible, and Drew Brees and
the boys will be able to run and pass at will against the Rams.
Atlanta (-1.5) at
Carolina
There's no doubt that the Panthers are playing better recently, because
of their recommitment to the run, but it's just not enough to hang with
a team like Atlanta. I look for Michael Turner to have a big, big day.
Tampa Bay at Miami
(-9.5)
I really, really struggled with this game, because I liked what I
saw from rookie quarterback Josh Freeman last week. However, the Bucs
can't stop the run and that's what Miami does best. On the other hand,
it's hard to ask Freeman to beat a team through the air, which he'll
have to do against Miami's fifth-ranked run defense.
Kansas City (+2)
at Oakland
To be honest, this one's just a hunch. The Raiders beat the Chiefs back
in week two at Kansas City, but I think the Chiefs are getting better,
and the Raiders are wallowing in controversy and poor quarterback play.
I'm just glad I don't have to watch this game.
Seattle at Arizona
(-8)
The Cardinals have won four out of their last five and are starting
to play like the team we saw last January. Meanwhile, Seattle may be the
most inconsistent team in the league this year. Just when I think
they're about to turn the corner, they simply turn around and go back to
being a bad football team.
Philadelphia at San
Diego (-1)
Three reasons for this pick: 1. Philip Rivers looked fantastic in
the comeback win over the Giants, 2. the Eagles appeared to be
sleep-walking through a very important game against Dallas last week,
which is very disturbing, and 3. we all know what happened the last time
the Eagles traveled across the country - yep, that 13-9 loss to the
Raiders.
Dallas (-2.5)
at Green Bay
I don't really understand this line. The Cowboys have been playing some
of the best football in the league over the past few weeks and the
Packers have been disappointing, to say the least, for the entire year.
With the potent Dallas pass rush, I'm not sure Aaron Rodgers will make
it out of the first quarter.
New England (+3)
at Indianapolis
I like the Pats because they're more balanced offensively and
defensively. Also, the Colts' streak has to come to an end sometime and
I think it will happen against Bill Belichick, a guy who knows more than
any other how to slow down Peyton Manning.
Baltimore (-10.5)
at Cleveland
The Browns have decided to bring Brady Quinn back as the starter.
Personally, I don't care if they could bring back Otto Graham and Jim
Brown, there's no way that this Cleveland team keeps it within two
touchdowns against the Ravens.
Last Week:
6-7
Season: 72-56-1
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