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Well, the weekend that most football fans loathe is finally here - Super Bowl weekend. We abhor it because of what it represents. The fact that after this game, it will be seven months before we see the next competitive football game, is enough to make us want to take up the annual tradition of bears and go into hibernation. If it wasn't for the draft and all that goes around it, I wouldn't mind setting my alarm for August, 2009. But alas, if I did that I would awaken to a mound of unpaid bills and someone else living in my house.

So, for sanity's sake, let's spend a little more time analyzing the final game. Of course, unless you've been living under a rock, you've been inundated with information about this matchup since the conference championship games ended. Hopefully, I'll present some arguments that you haven't seen or heard elsewhere.

Pick appears in bold.

I have to admit I've spent more time thinking about this game than any other Super Bowl I can remember. The storylines, strategies, and each teams' strengths and weaknesses are intriguing to say the least. I've identified four major points that will determine who wins this game.

1. Pittsburgh's focus on Larry Fitzgerald
If Pittsburgh spends too much time worrying about, and trying to shut down Fitzgerald, they'll cripple themselves in a couple of ways. First, they'll open up the opportunity for Kurt Warner and the rest of his weapons to kill them. Don't forget that Anquan Boldin, Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, and Steve Breaston have made a lot of plays, too. Second, they take away the strength and aggressiveness of their defense. Troy Polamalu is the only player talented enough in the Steelers' secondary to really make things difficult for Fitzgerald. If Dick LeBeau makes it a point to try and match up the two, he'll negate hid Pro Bowl safety's biggest asset - his ability to roam, center field-style, and make plays.

2. Arizona's protection of Kurt Warner
I've said this about 300 times in the last month or so, but I'll say it again. Kurt Warner is second only to Peyton Manning in his pre-snap reads, and second to no one in terms of getting the ball out quickly. The way to beat Warner is to not give away the blitzer before the snap (something Philadelphia failed miserably to do), and to force him to speed up his decision-making. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers used to give him fits by getting up the field quickly and make him get rid of the ball before he wanted to. With pass-rushers like James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, they've got the tools to make it happen. You've heard many analysts talk about throwing off the timing of the receivers. In this case, the key is throwing off the timing of Kurt Warner.

3. Pittsburgh's ability to run the ball
For good reason, much is being made of the Steelers' defense and how they may be one of the greatest of all time. However, the Cardinals' defense is the reason they're in this game. I know that may be considered heresy in Arizona and, more specifically, Larry Fitzgerald's house, but it's the truth. If they don't turn the tide with a fumble returned for a touchdown against Atlanta, they don't make it to the divisional round. If they're not as aggressive in the passing lanes against Carolina, seemingly picking off anything that comes out of Jake Delhomme's hand, they don't get to the conference championship. Lastly, if they don't hold Brian Westbrook to 14 relatively insignificant touches, they're not playing in Tampa this week. If Arizona wants to win this game, their defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, has to figure out a way to take the ball out of the hands of Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, and force Ben Roethlisberger to win it. When Big Ben has the ball, fumbles, interceptions, and sacks occur all too often. They simply can't allow the Steelers' to control the line of scrimmage and clock.

4. Arizona's defense must play with the same aggressiveness
If Arizona intends on sitting back in a form of conservative "safe" defense, they might as well send the Lombardi trophy to the Steelers' locker room right now. That approach is what led them to get beat by 40 in New England, 21 against Minnesota, and 28 in Philadelphia. They absolutely have to play with the disregard and tenacity they've displayed in the past three games, which has resulted in 12 turnovers and seven sacks - numbers that are way outside of the curve for this defense.

With all of that in mind, I think that Pittsburgh will be able to get to Warner and should be able to run the ball with a fair amount of success. However, I think that Arizona will be very aggressive and turn the Steelers' offense over a couple of times. Also, I think the Cardinals' skill position players hold a distinct advantage over the defenders that will be covering them.

So, I like Pittsburgh to win, but in a very close game.

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+7)
 

Last Week: 1-1
Season: 138-123-5